2026 Primary Elections · Early Voting · Democratic Party
Democratic Primary — U.S. Senate

Crockett vs. Talarico — All-Counties Model

Projected early voting results for Dallas, Harris, and Travis counties using precinct-level racial demographics and group voting patterns.
Early voting through Feb. 18, 2026 · 67,741 Democratic ballots modeled
Vote assumptions
Talarico share is 100−slider. Remainder (“Other”) assumed 50/50.
Electorate (statewide)
Sliders are the assumed statewide Democratic primary electorate by race. Weights are solved to match these targets (then normalized within each county/tract).
FINAL TURNOUT ASSUMPTIONS

All-Counties Total

All counties with turnout · — Dem votes
Jasmine Crockett
45.3%
30,692 votes
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James Talarico
54.7%
37,049 votes
Dallas County 25,681 votes
Crockett12,961 (50.5%)
Talarico12,720 (49.5%)
Harris County 25,704 votes
Crockett11,463 (44.6%)
Talarico14,241 (55.4%)
Travis County 16,356 votes
Crockett6,268 (38.3%)
Talarico10,088 (61.7%)

By County

Loading demographics…
Turnout input (editable)
Paste the county turnout table you copied. This model reads “Registered Voters”, “Cumulative In-Person and Mail Voters”, and “Cumulative Percent Early Voting”.
Parsed: 0 · Matched demographics: 0
County Registered Early Early% C% C votes T votes Split

By Vote Center

Co. Location Crock. Talar. Lead Split

Statewide final estimate

Allocated by county registered voters · — projected votes
Jasmine Crockett
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James Talarico
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Final by County

County Electorate Votes Turnout% C% C votes T votes Split
Model assumptions: Black voters 87/13 Crockett · White voters 32/68 Talarico · Hispanic voters 38/62 Talarico · Asian voters 25/75 Talarico. Demographics from 2020 Census P2 (county-level) and tract approximations (vote-center layer), reweighted to match the electorate sliders (statewide; normalized). Vote-center layer uses Dallas/Harris/Travis vote centers; county layer covers all counties with turnout + Census. This is a demographic model, not certified results.