2026 Primary Elections · Early Voting · Democratic Party
Democratic Primary — U.S. Senate

Crockett vs. Talarico — 3 County Model

Projected early voting results for Dallas, Harris, and Travis counties using precinct-level racial demographics and group voting patterns.
Early voting through Feb. 18, 2026 · 67,741 Democratic ballots modeled
Vote assumptions
Talarico share is 100−slider. Remainder (“Other”) assumed 50/50.

Three-County Total

Dallas + Harris + Travis · 67,741 Dem votes
Jasmine Crockett
45.3%
30,692 votes
✓
James Talarico
54.7%
37,049 votes
Dallas County 25,681 votes
Crockett12,961 (50.5%)
Talarico12,720 (49.5%)
Harris County 25,704 votes
Crockett11,463 (44.6%)
Talarico14,241 (55.4%)
Travis County 16,356 votes
Crockett6,268 (38.3%)
Talarico10,088 (61.7%)

By Vote Center

Co. Location Crock. Talar. Lead Split
Model assumptions: Black voters 80/20 Crockett · White voters 35/65 Talarico · Hispanic voters 35/65 Talarico · Asian voters 25/75 Talarico. Demographics from 2020 Census tract-level approximations for each vote center neighborhood. All three counties use countywide vote centers. This is a demographic model, not certified results.